Kingmakers

This weekend is going to be one that resonates in Canadian politics for a long time. A number of different scenarios will play themselves out, and after watching closely the past few days, I'm not sure who I should be supporting in each of the races. In fact, whoever wins one will impact who I like in the other. So i thought I would take a few minutes to outline some of what I think before the results come in.

1. If Harper wins the next federal election, I like Dinning for Premier. In terms of electability, I feel like the four major liberal contenders fall in this order. Ignatieff, Rae, Kennedy, Dion. So I guess from this angle, I like Dion and Dinning to win this weekend.

2. If Harper loses the next election to Ignatieff or Kennedy, I still like Dinning. I feel like Ignatieff would get my vote if I was picking my personal favorite for Liberal leader. Kennedy impressed me tonight though. Both of those men have some strengths, and despite my dislike of the Liberals recently, I would be willing to give either the benefit of the doubt. Therefore, I would still pick Dinning for premier as the best man to negotiate Alberta's place within Canada. Ignatieff is my favorite Liberal candidate, so if one of them has to be PM, I'd rather it be him.

3. If Harper loses the next election to Dion, as remote a possibility as that is, I have a very hard time predicting what would happen. Dion's policy, beyond environmentalism and national unity, remains very much a mystery to me. I will say that since he was such a Chretien hardliner, I might expect something along those lines...but as for which premier would be the best fit if Dion were PM..no idea

4. If Harper were to lose to Rae, as much as I dislike social conservatism, Alberta needs Ted Morton. Everything that Morton, Harper et al. wrote in the Firewall Letter would become absolutely true, and Alberta needs a hardliner to fight someone who is essentially an NDP turncoat and prevent them from ruining our province. Being accomodating to a Bob Rae government would be suicide. If Albertans thought the NEP was bad..there's absolutely no predicting what Rae would do. All I know is that Ontario's economy took a nosedive when he was in charge, and I've never met an NDP'er who said "fiscal responsibility" and meant it. That includes Bob Rae.

5. From a Conservative point of view, there was one man who terrified me above all others at the Liberal convention tonight. Luckily for Harper, he's not one of the candidates this time around. The two minutes that Justin Trudeau spoke, introducing Kennedy, gave me the irrefutable impression that he will be the PM one day. He's a tremendous orator, he has a legendary name, he's fluently bilingual and hes is young, smart and as far as I can tell..a pretty good looking dude. Us Conservatives better be ready..and we better have a titan of our own ready to fight Trudeau in about 10 or 15 years. Harper, Day, Manning...none of them would stand a chance. We better start preparing now.